The Influence of the Modernization Paradigm on People ’ s Beliefs about Family and Social Change

This paper outlines the combination of two prominent theories of social life: 1) modernization theory and 2) W.I. Thomas’ theorem that people’s perceptions have real consequences. It then documents the extent to which the complex idea of modernization and development has cemented itself in the minds of ordinary people as a model of how the world works. I employ latent class analysis and use 2003 survey data from Nepal to examine these issues. I document the extent to which people expect certain family types (late marriage, polygamy, small families) to be in certain society types (developed, poor, educated), and the extent to which people believe family change and societal change are causally connected. Results suggest that the majority of people strongly believe that development and family change are causally related. But nearly 10% of respondents report disagreeing with the developmental models. Fertility, marriage and gender equality are understood by respondents as a package of family behaviors causally related to development.